Analytical Reports

World supply-demand outlook November


Production in 2023 set to fall by 2.2% below last year's level. The forecast remains unchanged this month with an upward revision for the US balancing a downward revision for Kazakhstan.
Utilization in 2023/24 forecast to rise by 1.4% following this month's upward revision to feed use, mainly in China.
Trade in 2023/24 (July/June) lifted slightly m/m, on stronger import demand for the EU and larger shipments from Türkiye, but still heading for a contraction from the 2022/23 level.
Stocks (ending in 2024) now seen remaining near opening levels following m/m downgrades to inventories in China (due to higher utilization), Kazakstan (lower production), and Türkiye (higher exports).

Production forecast for 2023 still pointing to a y/y increase and unchanged this month with an upgrade to China's estimate offsetting downgrades for the EU, Indonesia, and the US.
Utilization in 2023/24 trimmed m/m, largely in Indonesia due to tighter supplies, but still set to increase by 1.6%.
Trade in 2023/24 (July/June) still heading for a decline from 2022/23 despite an upward revision this month on stronger demand from the EU and higher export prospects for Argentina and Paraguay.
Stocks (ending in 2024) raised m/m with an upward revision in China reflecting higher production, further boosting global stocks to 8.1% above opening levels.

Production in 2023/24 raised somewhat, as an upward revision for India, following upward adjustments to 2022/23 estimates for the country, overshadowed revisions for a few other countries, most notably a downgrade for Indonesia.
Utilization in 2023/24 upgraded, largely owing to higher than previously anticipated uses in India. Despite the revision, global rice uses are still seen stagnating at the 2022/23 level.
Trade in 2024 little changed m/m and still seen remaining close to the 2023 depressed level.
Stocks (2023/24 carry-out) raised marginally, as slight upward revisions for India and Indonesia are largely offset by downgraded forecasts namely for Viet Nam.

2023/24 production virtually unchanged this month, as downward adjustments for India and the US were offset by higher forecasts for Argentina, the Russian Federation and Ukraine.
Utilization in 2023/24 practically stable m/m, with reduced forecasts for Brazil, Egypt and India counterbalanced by higher crushing outlooks mainly in a number of Asian countries.
Trade in 2023/24 (Oct/Sep) raised slightly, chiefly on account of an upward revision for Brazil exports, more than compensated for lower shipment forecasts for Argentina and the US.
Stocks (2023/24 carry-out) upgraded somewhat, confirming a 12 percent y/y recovery from the reduced levels registered in the previous season.