Analytical Reports

North American Agribusiness Review - August 2023

The North American August Agribusiness Review by RaboResearch is out!

This periodical update provides a market outlook for various agricultural commodities and gives an overview of what developments to watch in the upcoming months in North America. See the highlights below:

➡️ Economy: Improvement in inflation data without a perceived decline in economic activity raises hopes of a soft landing, but a recession in 2H is still possible.

➡️ Logistics: Panama Canal congestion, trucking bankruptcy, and El Niño impact global logistics.

➡️ Consumer Retail & Foodservice: Overall inflation has eased, but restaurants have not received the memo.

➡️ Corn: Topsoil moisture remains low in parts of the Corn Belt.

➡️ Farm Inputs: August/September offer the first blush into next year’s cost structure as seed price transparency emerges.

➡️ Feed: Corn is getting more affordable in animal feed rations.

➡️ Fruit: Reduced “Flor Loca” crop pushes avocado prices near historic highs.

➡️ Soybeans: Price spread draws Brazilian beans to the US.

➡️ Tree Nuts: Elimination of retaliatory tariffs by India to foster US exports.

➡️ Vegetables: Aside from short-term seasonality, higher production and lower prices are expected for marketing year 2023/24.

➡️ Wheat: Global uncertainty to remain the wild card.

➡️ Dairy: Milk production was flat in June as cow numbers dropped, driven by low milk prices in Q2.

➡️ Pork: Larger seasonal production to weigh on returns.

➡️ Poultry: Chicken markets reach a supply inflection, improved profits to follow.

➡️ Cattle: Cattle supplies tighten as drought remains a concern across relatively wide swaths of North America.

See the detail here: