Analytical Reports

2023/24 Grain Production Exceeds Consumption

Global corn production is forecast to sharply increase, driven primarily by a forecast of continued high production in Brazil and rebounds in the United States and Argentina. Supplies in Ukraine are forecast to fall. Trade is forecast to increase as ample supplies from major exporters Brazil, Argentina, and the United States lower prices and supports a rebound in global demand. Global consumption of corn for both feed and non-feed uses is forecast up. Ending stocks are also forecast to rise, primarily due to a strong surge in stocks in the United States.

The global wheat outlook is for larger production and consumption with declining global trade and ending stocks. Production is projected to increase with larger crops in Argentina, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, and Turkey more than

offsetting large declines for Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. Global trade will contract with lower imports for China. Declines in exports for Australia, India, Ukraine, and the United States will more than offset increases for Argentina, Canada,

and the EU. Global consumption is forecast up on larger Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use more than offsetting lower feed and residual use. Ending stocks are forecast down, with smaller stocks in the EU, Russia, and the United States.

Global rice production is forecast at a record with larger production in Asia, especially on record crops in Bangladesh, India, and China along with a recovery in Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to rise to a new record, primarily from strong growth in India, Bangladesh, and SubSaharan Africa. Global trade is forecast virtually unchanged with India remaining the top exporter. Pakistan is expected to see significant growth in

exports amidst a rebounding crop, while forecasts for Thailand and Vietnam – the next largest exporters – are down due to less demand from Indonesia. Global stocks continue a downward trend to a 6-year low.

Global coarse grain production is projected to increase as strong growth in corn and sorghum more than offsets declines in barley, oats, and rye. Coarse grain production in the United States, China, the European Union, Brazil, and Argentina

is forecast higher, more than offsetting smaller crops in Ukraine, Australia, and Canada. Global coarse grain consumption is expected to grow modestly from 2022/23 as expectations of lower prices for corn and sorghum support worldwide

demand growth, more than offsetting weaker demand for barley, oats, and rye.

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